Will some of the top teams opt to use their full squads in Edinburgh 7s?

With the series won last week by New Zealand, there is only pride to play for at the final event of the 2010-2011 world sevens series in Edinburgh.

Some sides may choose to use their full squads to expose as many of their players as they can to international sevens at it’s best.

New Zealand coach Gordon Teitjens may do this.

There has been talk of this being Tomasi Cama’s last year and no doubt there will be some player turnover as New Zealand’s super rugby teams look to replenish their stocks from sevens ranks after the clean out that is happening there after the World Cup.

Australian coach Michael O’Connor may also use his full squad. He has had a lot of players come through the squad in the last 2 seasons – much more than any of the other top 6 sides and if the trend continues, O’Connor will want to ensure he has some continuity for nest season.

Samoa have been unable to replicate their winning form from last season without the services of star players Uale Mai, Lolu Lui and Mikaele Pesamino on a regular basis. Coach Stephen Betham may look to extend the confidence in his squad with more game time in Edinburgh as he searches for answers for next season.

I don’t believe Fiji will do this as they are establishing a new era with a new coach, new captain and several young players coming through. Also, as the national sport of the small island nation there is always a lot of expectation when they play.

England will definitely not be taking their foot off the pedal after their disappointing performance at their home tournament last week. They were still in the race 13 points behind New Zealand but blew it badly so they will be looking for a big showing in Edinburgh.

Ben Ryan’s men led the series early on, winning in Dubai and making the final in South Africa and New Zealand but with the win in Las Vehas and another last week, South Africa are now just 6 points behind them. So no chance Paul Treu will risk not playing his best side either.

The 4 high interest non-seeded match-ups on Day#1 at Edinbiirgh 7s

1. Argentina v France
Second up are the 2 teams that denied England the chance of winning their own tournament on Day#1 at Twickenham

Argentina won when the 2 played each other in pool play, running out convincingly 28-15. But France had a great tournament, making the quarter finals for the first time in several years so they will take that confidence into Edinburgh.

Our pick: Argentina in a closer contest than last week

2. Russia v France
France will be favored to win this match but Russia are one of the fast improvers in the World Sevens Series.

Russia competed well with South Africa and drew with Portugal on Day#1 in England. They then beat Canada on Day#2 and narrowly lost to Kenya in the bowl final.

Russia have strength all over the field and pace out wide.

Our pick: Russia to pull off an upset

3. Spain v Portugal
Portugal are another one of the big improvers on the world series. They beat England and France in pool play in the first event of the season (Dubai) and took Fiji to within 3 points last week.

They also beat the USA on their way to the Shield final.

Spain are also on the rise.

They beat Kenya on Day#1 and then the USA last week in the Bowl quarter finals.

Our pick: Portugal in a nail-biter

4. Kenya v Canada
Canada are enjoying a solid run of form led by their brillant playmaker Phil Mack. They won the Bowl in Hong Kong beating Argentina, France and Wales on the way.

They beat Scotland 25-12 in pool play last week.

Kenya’s form has been up and down this season as they struggle to find consistency.

They beat England on their way to the Bowl final last week in London, which they lost to Scotland.

But Humphrey Kayenge leads from the front and his brother Collins Injera is due a big tournament.

Our pick: Kenya in another close match

Can South Africa make it 2 in a row and take 2nd spot in the series?

South Africa’s performance in the final of the England Sevens at weekend was clinical.

They played as a team, executed a well thought out strategy and snuffed out the most exciting team in the tournament.

Opponents Fiji were at their brilliant best in their semi-final destruction of New Zealand.

They were the pick of the teams on Day#1 and carried their form into Day#2 where them beat Samoa in a tough but convincing quarter final.

Fiji had beaten South Africa in their final game on day one 12-7 but they were simply not given any time or space to play.

While they have several new players, South Africa have a wealth of experience in the forwards in Frankie Horne, Kyle Brown and Steven Hunt.

Branco du Preez and Cecil Afrika provide spark, creativity and penetration in the back line and are well supported with pace and strength on the outsides from Johannesburg Prinsloo and Bernardo Botha.

Coach Paul Treu is one of the most respected in the World Series and he certainly got it right at Twickenham. He also got it right in Las Vegas where South Africa won the tournamentand really kick-started their rise up the series rankings.

Their victory in London has given them 116 points and taken them within just 5 points of England (currently in second place) after their early exit from the Cup competition.

What will it take?
There are 24 points on offer to the winner of the Edinburgh Sevens. The runner up gets 20 and semi-finalists each take 16 points.

The Plate is worth 12 points. Coming second nets 8 and Plate semi-finalists each get 6.

The winner of the Bowl gets 4 points.

It is hard to see England fail 2 weeks in a row. You would bet the house on them bouncing back.

If England make the final, they will secure second place and so for South Africa to get ahead of Ben May’s men, they really need to knock the out in the semi-finals at the latest.

The way the pools are set in Edinburgh the 2 teams will not meet in the quarter finals. If things go better for England on Day#1 they will meet either New Zealand or Argentina in their quarter final while South Africa will play either Fiji or Samoa.

Last week showed that seedings mean nothing and that the competition between all teams is closing fast.

That said, of the top 6 teams it was only England who did not make it to the Quarter finals.

I think the following will happen

  • England will bounce back to make it to at least the quarter finals
  • None of the top 6 teams will take any of their opponents lightly regardless of who they play
  • Fiji will learn from their final defeat and come back just as strong
  • New Zealand will play better than they did in their semi-final against Fiji

Bottom Line – it will be even tougher for South Africa to win this week

Opposing coaches will have analyzed everything they did in that final and will have plotted counter-strategies.

South Africa will likely play either Fiji or Samoa in their quarter final and then New Zealand, Argentina or England in their semi – a very tough ask.

No disrespect to their great side – and their wonderful effort last weekend – but I do not believe they will overtake England this weekend.

Plenty of upsets on Day #1 in Edinburgh

The upsets started early with France beating Argentina 14-5 in the second match of the day.

Sometimes it’s hard to know whether Argentina will play well or not and they did not seem to like the early start.

Not to take anything away from the French, they deserved their win in an average match.

Wales over USA 19-10

Unfortunately for the Americans, their season’s best form was in the Australian leg where they made their first cup final at the Adelaide Sevens.

Key players Paul Emerick and Kevin Swiryn lined up for the USA but they were without key playmaker Nesi Malifa for the last 2 events of the series and seemed to miss him dearly. Also seemed to lack impetus off the bench that they have enjoyed in previous outings.

Kolinisau

Fiji could have done with the pace & brilliance of Kolinisau

Scotland over Fiji 31-14

A historic win by a resurgent Scottish side. Fiji have been trying some new players and combinations in the last 2 events of the World Series and while they went quite well last week in London, they have not gone so well here in Edinburgh.

Canada over England 26-19

In a day of upsets, this was one of the biggest.

England had gone off the boil since their epic semi-final battle with Samoa in Hong Kong at the end of March.

They were the defending champions at their home tournament but were thumped by Australia last week in pool play before losing both matches on Day 2 to South Africa and New Zealand respectively  although their performance against the Kiwis was very good (NZ won the game in the dying seconds).

Nick Royle came back into the squad and performed well, scoring 2 tries but it was Canada’s Sean Duke who proved to be the hero on the day with 2 excellent tries.

The English defence was a bit flat and playmaker Phillip Mack took advantage with a quick tap penalty and pass out wide to Justin Mensah-Coker to score the winner.

The pass looked forward but was not called and Canada celebrated a historic win.

Scotland over the USA 33-12

Not so much of an upset for the tournament as Scotland are a different side to the one who have registered disappointing performances in the first 6 events of the season.

And this American team is a different one to the side that made the Cup final in Australia. On paper, they would have been favoured to go through from Pool D with Fiji but they ended day 1 without a win.

France beat Kenya 28-5

A humiliating result for Kenya. They would have fancied their chances of going through to the Cup quarter finals with Samoa from Pool A but like the Americans, they ended Day 2 without a win.

Argentina over Samoa 31-10

Argentina seem to have Samoa’s number – they are one of only 2 teams to have beaten them in the last 4 tournaments – and this was the second time in 2 weeks!

[They also beat them in South Africa at the quarter final stage of the George Sevens back in December]

I’ve said before that Argentina must be a hard team to play. They are very physical but have a nice balance of speed and skill to go with it.

Early on, the Argentinians appeared to have no answer to Samoa’s big men. Fa’asilivia and Otto were unstoppable in the first half.

Tuculet got them back into the match however with a good try under the posts after a promising attack led to a 5m scrum.

Tuculet then got his second try at the end of the 1st half to give the South Americans a 4 point advantage at the break 14-10.

They showed good composure in the second spell, scoring again in the second half. They got their 4th try when Lolo Lui got yellow carded for his second high shot of the match.

Del Busto got Argentina’s 5th try with a numbers advantage out wide on the right.

Argentina then had to hold on to their 21 point advantage i order to go through to the Sup quarter finals – which they did with some last ditch defence and a knock on by Lolo Lui in the last seconds of the match.

Scotland over Wales 33-21

Like their win over the United States, Scotland’s win over Wales was more an upset on season form rather than on the day.

Wales have been average since their World Cup win in 2008 but they have clawed their way back with some solid performances this season.

In contrast the Scottish have been poor this season – possibly the worst of the top 12 teams in the IRB World Sevens Series.

They were boosted with additional players in the London and Edinburgh legs however with excellent performances by John Houston and Roddy Grant in particular.

Andrew Turnbull had been the standout in an average team up until then so it was good that he got the support he has needed all season.

Scotland scored first but then Lee Rees kicked through and regathered to level the scores.

Roddy Grant showed good strength to fend the last defender and score to recover the lead for the Scots.

A nice delay of pass put Colin Shaw in down the left flank and then a Welsh yellow card saw Ben Cairns put things out of reach. A very good day by the home side to earn them a Cup quarter final against England.

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